Iraq stands at a crossroads, and its upcoming parliamentary election could shape not only its future but also the delicate balance of power in the Middle East. But here's where it gets controversial: will this election bring stability or deepen existing divisions?
Voting begins on Sunday, with security forces and displaced persons casting their ballots first, followed by the general election on Tuesday. At stake is the political future of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who seeks a second term in office. Yet, this election unfolds against a backdrop of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, with the looming threat of Israeli or U.S. strikes on Iran-backed groups within Iraq. Baghdad’s tightrope walk between Tehran and Washington has grown increasingly precarious, especially under pressure from the Trump administration over Iran-linked armed groups.
This election marks the seventh since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s longtime dictator. In the chaotic aftermath of his fall, the country descended into a brutal civil war, giving rise to extremist groups like the Islamic State. However, in recent years, the focus has shifted from security to pressing socio-economic issues. Many Iraqis now grapple with unemployment, crumbling public services, and frequent power outages—ironic for a nation rich in energy resources.
Iraq’s electoral system is designed to ensure representation across its diverse population. By law, 25% of the 329 parliamentary seats are reserved for women, and nine seats are allocated for religious minorities. The power-sharing system also mandates that the speaker of Parliament be Sunni, the prime minister Shiite, and the president Kurdish.
Yet, voter enthusiasm has waned. Turnout in the 2021 parliamentary election plummeted to a record low of 41%, down from 44% in 2018. This trend continues, with only 21.4 million out of 32 million eligible voters updating their information for this election, compared to 24 million in 2021. Adding to the complexity, there will be no polling stations outside Iraq, unlike in previous elections.
A total of 7,744 candidates are vying for seats, representing a mix of sectarian-aligned parties and independents. Key contenders include Shiite blocs led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and cleric Ammar al-Hakim, as well as Sunni factions headed by former Parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani. Kurdish parties, such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, are also in the fray. Notably, several Iran-linked Shiite militias, including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, are participating through affiliated political parties.
And this is the part most people miss: One of Iraq’s most influential political forces, the Sadrist Movement led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is boycotting the election. Despite winning the most seats in 2021, al-Sadr’s bloc withdrew after failed government formation talks, marking a standoff with rival Shiite parties. This boycott underscores the deep fractures within Iraqi politics.
In Sadr City, a Sadrist stronghold housing 40% of Baghdad’s population, the usual election fervor is absent. Streets that once buzzed with campaign posters now display only calls for a boycott. Meanwhile, reformist groups emerging from the 2019 anti-government protests are participating but are hampered by internal divisions, lack of funding, and limited political support.
Allegations of corruption and vote-buying have marred the election process, with 848 candidates disqualified for reasons ranging from alleged insults to religious rituals to ties with armed forces. Historically, Iraqi elections have been tainted by political violence, including assassinations and attacks on polling stations. This year is no exception; a Sunni candidate, Safaa al-Mashhadani, was killed by a car bomb in October, with five suspects arrested in connection to the attack.
Prime Minister al-Sudani, who came to power in 2022 with backing from pro-Iran parties, has sought to balance Iraq’s relations with both Tehran and Washington. Positioning himself as a pragmatist, he has focused on improving public services. Yet, his path to a second term is fraught with challenges. Since 2003, only one prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has served more than one term.
The election’s outcome may not guarantee al-Sudani’s continuation in office. Past elections have shown that the bloc winning the most seats does not always secure its preferred candidate. Al-Sudani faces resistance from within the Shiite Coordination Framework bloc that brought him to power, as well as pressure from the U.S. to rein in militias like the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF, formally under Iraqi military control since 2016 but still largely autonomous, remains a contentious issue, with its members voting alongside security forces.
Is Iraq’s electoral system truly representative, or does it perpetuate sectarian divides? Can al-Sudani navigate the competing pressures from Iran and the U.S. to secure a second term? These questions linger as Iraqis head to the polls, their votes poised to shape not just their nation’s future but also the broader geopolitical landscape. What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
